Global H1N1 fears are subsiding, but as a recent Wall Street Journal article pointed out this may be premature. The article illustrates how the number of countries with confirmed H1N1 cases has risen from four on April 27th to 48 as of Wednesday, with the number of individual cases increasing from 73 to 13,398. However, the central question remains whether or not the virus will make a resurgence in the coming fall flu season, and if it does how virulent will it be. As you can see from the chart below, the 1918 flu pandemic struck in 3 separate phases, with the most severe occurring in the fall of that year. Similar to now, in 1918 after the initial outbreak, the world experienced a spring and summer with relatively low fatalities, despite rising infection rates. Nevertheless, by the fall of 1918 this trough culminated with a significant surge in fatality rates, leading to an estimated 500mn deaths. The 1918 scenario is by no means guaranteed to reoccur; nevertheless, it is certainly a reason to remain vigilant.
A time series of deaths per 1,000 during the 1918 flu pandemic
Interesting to point out is that according to the article 64% of the current H1N1 cases have occurred in the 5-24 age bracket, with only 1% of cases occurring in people older than 65. This distribution could theoretically be due to existing immunities within that age bracket from exposure to past H1N1 outbreaks. This pattern again parallels the 1918 pandemic.
Not all is fire and brimstone. Flu-detection and prevention technology has improved exponentially from 1918. An article by the NY Times, points out pharmaceutical companies have begun preliminary work on an H1N1 vaccine. The new vaccine could be ready as early as October, after clinical trials this summer. Nevertheless, given the parallels between now and the 1918 flu pandemic, it is important the public does not become over-complacent. It is good advice to remain aware of your environment and report any potential infections to the proper authorities for treatment and tracking purposes.
Filed under: Commentary on news & events, Public health | Tagged: H1N1, Public health, Swine flu
In Hong KOng,the Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen has announced that all primary and lower-level schools will close for a fortnight.
The decision for the two-week closure, effective from tomorrow, was made after a cluster of influenza-like cases at St Paul’s Convent School was found to be swine flu infections.
The number of cases in the St Paul cluster was also raised to 12 from nine previously.
Authorities were unable to identify the source of the infection, making it the first cluster of human swine flu cases in the city without a known link to those travelling overseas, prompting the closures.
Primary schools, kindergartens and nurseries will be closed until the start of the next school year if they are unable to resume school before the end of the current school year on July 10.
The Education Bureau has reached an understanding with principals that special arrangements will be made for Primary Five examinations, a key factor in getting into a good secondary school, if schools have to stay closed until the start of the new school year.
The schools will be closed until June 25 and the bureau will confirm their reopening or announce changes in plans on June 23.
香港仔時昌迷你倉
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